The Flu - and a little basketball stuff

We diverge a little from sports topics, and presented here will be just a few readily verifiable facts and statistics:

The average yearly number of deaths in the US from the flu is 34,000.
http://www.flufacts.com/impact/statistics.aspx
http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/fluactivity.htm

The CDC says the number is 36,000 on average in the US per year...but since reporting isn't mandatory, the CDC says...
"For (various) reasons, many flu-related deaths may not be recorded on death certificates."
and
"CDC does not know exactly how many people die from seasonal flu each year. There are several reasons ..."
http://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/disease/us_flu-related_deaths.htm

So there are arguments that it could be higher, although a lot of deaths in the elderly (often outside of hospitals) from various other forms of pneumonia and respiratory illness may get lumped in with influenza, and thus the number of true influenza deaths could be less.
.......but for the sake of argument, let's go with the CDC data.

Pediatric statistics are also a bit uncertain, but 75-200 pediatric influenza deaths are confirmed accurately BY TESTING each year, and using the same methods and reasoning as above, it is likely that number amounts to within a reasonable range from the actual number of pediatric cases, since the pediatric cases who die are nearly 100% hospitalized pediatric patients who do get accurately tested....but there still could be some who end up not being confirmed due to inavailability of testing. So it could be higher by a factor of 2-3 fold, but it is certainly NOT lower.
http://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/569566


Thus far (as of Oct. 23) THIS YEAR there have been 95 pediatric flu deaths confirmed associated with H1N1 (swine flu) - the predominant strain, 411 total H1N1 deaths in the US and roughly 2000-3000 total deaths from influenza-like syndromes (most not confirmed to be influenza) in all ages.
http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/update.htm
http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm#MS
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-10/24/content_12314008.htm

From this chart alone you can see the number of pediatric deaths is already above what occurred in each of the prior three seasons, and the number is roughly two-fold as high.
http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/weeklyarchives2009-2010/images/IPD41_small.gif

But from numerous sources, we can see the total number of flu deaths in all ages nationally are running way behind most years.
So the conclusion that can best be drawn is that for adults, the flu has been LESS of a threat than in past years.
For pediatric patients it has been more of a threat, although not massively so, but enough to be of concern, certainly.
But it is apparent that if a push is made for people to get the flu vaccine and the swine flu vaccine, it should be concentrated on kids (pediatric patients) and those who care for them.



Politics do play a part.........
There are varying opinions that stretch from one end of the spectrum to the other...

Here is an opinion that the threat is overblown--they do make valid points...
http://www.nationalpost.com/news/story.html?id=2139119

Here is an opinion that we have a full blown emergency on our hands, also valid points, so the reader needs to sort this out for himself.
http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2009/10/26/2108211.aspx

One thought is that the government least wants to be caught with their "pants down" or "sitting on their hands"...so they might be more prone to over-responding than under-responding.

In the end, it is actually difficult for the average person to sort out the true facts.
Here are a few more links:
http://cdc.gov/h1n1flu/
http://cdc.gov/mmwr/
http://cdc.gov/h1n1flu/update.htm

But the bottom line is that it is a bigger threat to kids than adults, but the overall level of threat is not too far from what's seen in other recent previous years, and in the older age groups it is a smaller threat than most other years. Obviously things could change and get either better or worse, so be cautious in your conclusions.
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The Illinois scrimmage was pretty awesome. seems they had no trouble putting points on the board.
http://bradleyfans.com/vb/showthread.php?p=143173#post143173

They should be a fun team to watch, although as many Bradley fans know from watching previous players in exhibition games, this doesn't always translate into consistent talent and similar performance against a good defense.
I cite this game...
http://www.bradleybraves.com/ViewArticle.dbml?SPSID=19332&SPID=1498&DB_OEM_ID=3400&ATCLID=1300810#
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open scrimmages against other non-D-I teams begins later this week...

the intrasquad scrimmage at Kent State had to be cut short when last night when their top returning player injured his ankle, and the coach had concerns about contining the scrimmage.
http://www.cleveland.com/sports/college/index.ssf/2009/10/inspired_kent_state_hoops_scri.html