Friday, June 8, 2012

Yawn....

That's all I hear from people when I try to talk Bradley basketball -- just a yawn -- people are definitely losing interest. Just a few years ago we debated whether interest was at all time high's!!! Now - we are at serious risk of interest plummeting to new lows... We already saw attendances dropping to levels not seen since the end of the Albeck era and beginning of the Molinari era, 20 years ago... And we have gobs of articles, as the press has begun to look like a PR firm for Bradley basketball -- and yet interest is STILL not improving. Let me say that my interest never dies and I think facts bear that out. I might not be the #1 Bradley fan but I am definitely mistaken for him some times as everyone who knows me knows I have intense interest in BU basketball 24/7/52 weeks per year - and I take no offseason. I meet 20-30 people per day who know me to be a HUGE year-round Bradley fan and who used to want to talk BU basketball all the time - but this year I just don't see that. There's just NO talk. I am doing my best to get people interested - but bad seasons, bad losses, turmoil, infighting between fans, the perception that prior players or coaches were not treated well, and apparently NO events or plans for this summer to keep the fans interested - have all combined to drop the interest. The funniest part of it all is that when I run into a fan who was one of those who wanted all the stuff that did happen - the changeover, the new hires, etc. - he now is one of those who has lost the most interest. In other words - he got what he wanted, was happy initially with the events, but now he realized he shot himself in the foot, doesn't like what he sees now, and has lost interest, knowing it's likely to be another bad year in 2012-2013. (Unfortunately I define that guy as a bad fan - fair weather fan - or a fan who only cares about himself.) Anyway - people who used to talk all the time about BU basketball -- don't -- and even if the subject comes up the conversation is more like -- ohhhh...I am not sure how they're gonna be this year... Then check out the local newspaper's heavily subsidized and promoted web site for Bradley basketball discussion. It's never been very busy, but now it's an absolute graveyard. There's basically only one post since Tuesday (3 days ago) and it isn't about Bradley in any way, shape, or form...it's about an ISU recruit. In fact even the other threads for the past week are about the women's basketball coach, Butler changing conferences, and other non-BU-basketball topics. You have to go back practically a week to find any interest in any Bradley basketball topic....and even at that - there's just a few cut-and-pasted topics that were stolen without giving credit from "somewhere else". BUT - the biggest indicator of ZERO interest other than just the core of GOOD BU basketball fans who are often seen discussing things on BradleyFans.com - is that you can scroll any time day or night -- even in the middle of the busiest day -- to the bottom of their page at the newspaper web site, and this is what you see.... "Who is online Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guests" Well - of course the "one guest" is YOU, if you're looking at this page - so other than you looking at the page there isn't anyone else anywhere in all the universe looking at it or at any page on their entire forum! ZERO traffic = zero interest.... This is not a good sign -- no buzz or fan-talk, seemingly just NO off-season interest --- This time last year, despite the turmoil, people were buzzing, they were showing up for off-season events, and MEET-THE-TEAM get togethers. But - I have not heard one thing yet if any are planned this summer. Be forewarned -- attendance and interest might just look like it's going to be down this season.....and I see one guy who once mocked that idea still has an embarrassing signature.....one that says he doesn't believe there will be any long term dropoff in interest after the coaching change... Hmmm......nice try.....

Wednesday, June 6, 2012

Statistics do not lie but people do

I ran into a guy yesterday that has taught statistics and knows statistics inside and out. And I posed to him a question on how to use statistics when sorting out if left handed athletes have any advantage over right handed ones. If you recall - there were people who saw the obvious statistics showing that extremely FEW left handed shooters at any level of basketball appear among the top ranked shooters in shooting percentage. And we're only talking about outside shooting - not layups - so we obviously are only using the shooting percentages from beyond the arc. BUT it's pretty dishonest to claim that it's within reasonable statistical probability for ZERO left handed shoopters to be inside the TOP best long range shooters...that HAS TO BE due to some factor that determines outcome. We all know that left handed pitchers, left handed hitters, and even left handed tennis players have long been known to have a little special advantage which accounts for why there's actually a statistically noticable preponderance of them rather than an absence of them. Yet we still have doubters...so I asked this statistics expert how to use the data and here's what he said... If the sample size is large enough then the very best of each (lefties and righties) - the very, very best should still be a comparable group to use. So he argued to pick the very TOP five right handed shooters, and the very top five best lefties - or use 10 or 20 but that we can't go too far or we dip into the less than elite among one of the groups... So I used the top five - here's what we come up with over the course of their entire multi-year careers... I know there will still be doubters, but I am only using what the expert says .. try doing the same with batting averages or other things and see that it works... Top 5 righty shooters: 44.14% Top 5 lefty shooters: 37.84% not even close - not even legitimate to argue and not even worthy of any further debate... there can be NO denial that the best righty shooters are clearly more accurate than the best lefty shooters. As to why - each is entitled to his own opinions but I believe there are legitimate thoughts out there.... BUT it's just downright stooooopid any longer for anyone to argue that such a CLEAR and obvious and undeniable statistical difference DOES exist... If left handed shooters were as accurate or more accurate then plenty of them would populate the tops of the lists - but it simply is NOT the case... Even the few who are in the TOP 100 are not enough to make the argument because there are SO few of them -- way, way fewer than would be expected by random statistical factors. Remember - there's NOTHING that stops a lefty from growing up and playing basketball - but there are obstacles to lefty golfers, tennis players, and even to some lefty baseball players because early in their careers the equipment and the training may not be there for the lefties - and yet they STILL succeed!

College coach rats on his own team

Here's a story about an Idaho State head basketball coach who was not retained and was mad about it... http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/blog/eye-on-college-basketball/19249396/ncaa-investigating-the-powerhouse-that-is-idaho-state But - as always there's a whole lot more to the story -- The head coach at Idaho State, while he was IN THE POSITION of head coach, was fully aware of illegal booster activity with friends and supporters of the Idaho State program trying to lure players with money... He knew of this activity yet kept completely silent while he was leading the team - then just as soon as he's let go - he fires off a letter to the NCAA ratting on his former employer and turns them in for the illegal activity... The story includes supposedly eyewitness accounts of recruits being paid off with cash as a bribe... BUT did you know this is not the first time such an occurrence is known to have happened..... Gotta wonder - was there a disgruntled coach who was booted off the BU coaching staff in 2005 just weeks before someone "anonymously" contacted the NCAA and ratted on Bradley causing the NCAA to unprecedentedly send TWO field investigators to scour Bradley without even notifying BU that an investigation was going to take place? If indeed that happened then we might finally begin to know who was responsible for Bradley getting investigated - and recall -- the allegations regarded illegal off-season contact - something the NCAA spent countless hours trying to dig and prove but were completely unable to do so - so they settled for digging for other trivial crap like summer pay records and finally found something they could use. Some people's hero could be a rat, you decide...