A preseason assessment of Valley teams

I am not going to predict how the Valley will play out in the standings, since there's still a lot of variables including new players, new coaches, injuries, and other unpredictables. I might do that later, but for now just some objective assessment.

It goes without saying that games are won in the Valley with experience and talent. So I have attempted to put some numbers on both of those factors.

First, for experience, I have taken my projection of who each team's top 7 players will be in their rotation, since only rarely does any player outside of the main rotation of players have much impact on a game. I have tried to quantitate their years of experience since high school, and their years of experience in the Valley system that they are playing in now.

Then for a talent assessment, I have totalled the main stats of those guys from their performances last year.
For the players that were NOT on the team last year, I will leave that to you to decide how to assess that. As I looked over the stats, the only teams with significant production from totally NEW guys, were quite regularly the teams who finished at the bottom of the Valley anyway. In other words...if a new guy like Colt Ryan, Tony Freeman, or Ryan Wedel put up some great numbers, then it was generally because that particular team didn't have anyone else more senior, and thus the newbies and freshmen were the ones taking all the shots and scoring the points...regardless....none of the top teams in the Valley had much help from totally new players, but that didn't stop those teams from having good years and being the top teams in the Valley, because it was in almost ALL cases their experienced players who helped them the most.

So, FWIW, I know it is somewhat arbitrary, but it's the way I have quantitated the experience and talent.......
Here are the results...alphabetically with Bradley's numbers at the end--
(remember - I have chosen just the projected top 7 guys on each team - PM me if you think I have left anyone major out)


Creighton:
Players: Lawson, Ashford, Young, Wragge, Runnels, Jones, Echenique
Total years: 16
Years playing in MVC: 9
Returning pts, rebs, asst: 43.0, 18.4, 6.5
Intangibles: New coach, new system, loss of top scorer, several new players, and Echinique plays the same position as the guy who's already their best player, and he won't be avilable until Dec.


Drake:
Players: Wedel, Van Deest, Simons, Hawley, Smith, Clarke, Wiseler
Total years: 11
Years playing in MVC: 5
Returning pts, rebs, asst: 36.0, 12.5, 6.1
Intangibles: Very young still, Wiseler may have to redshirt due to injury, Rayvonte Rice is a wild card, can he live up to the hype...?


Evansville:
Players: Ryan, Holmes, Lacey, Van Tongeren, Cox, Taylor, Hopf
Total years: 14
Years playing in MVC: 14
Returning pts, rebs, asst: 51.5, 21.8, 13.8
Intangibles: Marty's system has consistently produced bottom dwellers, weak in the paint, several player defections as the newbies hog all the shots.


Illinois State:
Players: Carmichael, A. Hill, Lewis, Rubin, Thornton, Clark, Smith
Total years: 15
Years playing in MVC: 9
Returning pts, rebs, asst: 31.0, 17.5, 5.1
Intangibles: Jank will be playing with largely his own players this time around, ISU lost more than anyone to graduation, where's the scoring going to come from, and is their cupcake schedule going to torpedo them again this year?
One thing that can be predicted, they probably won't win 24 games again even though just about anyone can with the schedule they have.


Indiana State:
Players: Lathan, Kelly, Richard, Carter, Printy, Duluony, Martin
Total years: 17
Years playing in MVC: 12
Returning pts, rebs, asst: 50.3, 23.2, 6.5
Intangibles: No proven post presence, Kelly returns from injury, someone needs to be the PG and get the ball to the scorers.


Missouri State:
Players: Weems, Leonard, Mallett, Creekmore, Ricks, Patterson, Pickens
Total years: 21
Years playing in MVC: 9
Returning pts, rebs, asst: 53.2, 26.6, 10.6
Intangibles: Return almost everyone, played a terribly weak schedule last year, good scorers in Weems & Leonard, but it drops off after that, despite their talent finished 8-10 in Valley.


Northern Iowa:
Players: Kwadzo, Moran, O'Rear, Dunham, Koch, Sonnen, James
Total years: 16
Years playing in MVC: 14
Returning pts, rebs, asst: 31.7, 15.9, 7.7
Intangibles: Lost a bunch of scoring, rebounding, and key players, good coaching, production from Moran & Dunham may not be a enough.


Southern Illinois:
Players: Fay, Bocot, Teague, Brown-Surles, Taylor, Seck, Cleveland
Total years: 14
Years playing in MVC: 7
Returning pts, rebs, asst: 31.3, 13.5, 5.0
Intangibles: Wheels falling off, the more players Lowery accumulates of his own, the more the team self destructs, once all of Weber & Painter's players were gone, they are a sub-.500 ball club, even Illinois Mr. Basketball's and Top 30 ranked players nationally flounder in this system, and finally there are just way too many new parts and juco kids this year.


Wichita State:
Players: Murry, Durley, Stutz, Hatch, Blair, Kyles, Williams
Total years: 16
Years playing in MVC: 16
Returning pts, rebs, asst: 55.3, 27.1, 9.4
Intangibles: I think the loss of Hannah will be harder on them than many think. he ran the team like a maestro, but there's really nobody to replace him. Lots of talent, but their scoring, like Bradley's, will come mostly from the guards. They need to stay healthy.


Bradley:
Players: Maniscalco, Dunson, Warren, Brown, Egolf, Simms-Edwards, Thompson
Total years: 21 (tied for most in Valley)
Years playing in MVC: 18 (Most in Valley)
Returning pts, rebs, asst: 63.3(#1 in MVC), 23.0(2nd in MVC), 8.8(4th in MVC)
Intangibles: If BU can have an injury-free year then this season could be special. I expect BU will be picked 3rd, 4th, or 5th with people basing it on other years, but guards rule the Valley and Bradley has 3 (and maybe 4) of the best guards in the league and DSE will step up and cause the talk of Rayvonte to fade....
Will Egolf has become a team leader but the real leader wears #5.